000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150403 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAR 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 2N78W 4N95W 6N105W 3N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 360 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM W TEXAS THROUGH NW MEXICO TO 15N128W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES OVER NW MEXICO FROM 30N105W TO THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL NEAR 27N108W AND ITS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO ENCROACH ON THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N130W. THE 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. SHIP 9HJB9 REPORTED 23-27 KT WINDS FROM 2100 UTC TO 0000 UTC AS IT TRAVELED FROM 30N124W TO 30N125W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MON MORNING HERE. ALOFT...THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET JUST S OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 130 KT IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO W CENTRAL AND NE MEXICO...WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS FOUND PRIMARILY WITHIN 600 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT NEAR 20N123W WILL ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE FROM THE N PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO AN ANCHOR UPPER LOW OVER THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER...A BROAD DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING NW WATERS WILL SEND ITS LEADING EDGE EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND NE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO ITS E TO PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND NW MEXICO WHICH WILL HELP SHOVE MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINGERING OVER NE WATERS EASTWARD. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH THE HIGH PRES W OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRONG TRADE WINDS... CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 120W...TO SHRINK W AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW WATERS MON MORNING WITH NW WINDS BEHIND IT AT 20 KT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 17 FT OVER THE NW WATERS TUE EVENING. DEEP TROPICS... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 123W LIES IN THE DIFFLUENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALOFT. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 09N102W TO 01N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH FROM 02N TO 07N. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 8N102W. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE UPPER AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER NE WATERS. THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA WITH THE INTERSECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS COINCIDING IN THE REGION OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 90W AND 99W. THIS COINCIDENT REGION SHOULD SHIFT E WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... THE OBSERVATION AT PUERTO PENASCO...MEXICO SHOWED N WINDS AT 20 KT AT 1800 UTC N OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS NW MEXICO. ASCAT DATA FROM DURING THE DAY ON SAT CONFIRMED NW 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH TUE...REMAINING AT 20 KT THROUGH TUE EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER