000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142139 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAR 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 06N78W TO 03N100W TO 05N110W TO 04N125W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 126W AS WELL AS WITHIN 45N N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM W TEXAS SW THROUGH NW MEXICO TO 20N125W TO 10N125W. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH LIES FROM NW MEXICO FROM 30N107W TO 23N117W TO 21N128W AND CONTINUES TO ENCROACH ON THE 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N129W. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 1344 UTC HAD 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE THE MORE RECENT 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WINDS DIMINISHING IS STRENGTH AND AREA. SHIP 9HJB9 HAS REPORTED 30 KT WINDS FROM 1700 UTC TO 2000 UTC AS IT TRAVELED JUST N OF THE AREA FROM 31N123W TO 30N124W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MON MORNING HERE. ALOFT...THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET JUST S OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 130 KT IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND S TEXAS...WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS FOUND PRIMARILY WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 17N. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT NEAR 21N124W WILL ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE FROM THE ANCHOR UPPER LOW OF THIS TROUGH FOUND OVER THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER...A BROAD DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS WILL SEND ITS LEADING EDGE EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND N CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE...AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO ITS E TO PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND NW MEXICO WHICH WILL HELP SHOVE MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINGERING OVER NE WATERS EASTWARD. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH THE HIGH PRES W OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 05N TO 21N W OF 120W...TO SHRINK W AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 18 FT IN NW WATERS TUE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. DEEP TROPICS... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 126W LIES IN THE DIFFLUENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALOFT. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 09N108W TO 02N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH S OF 04N AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 07N103W. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE UPPER AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER NE WATERS. THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA WITH THE INTERSECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS COINCIDING IN THE REGION OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 84W AND 100W. THIS COINCIDENT REGION SHOULD SHIFT E WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... THE OBSERVATION AT PUERTO PENASCO...MEXICO SHOWED N WINDS AT 20 KT AT 1800 UTC N OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS NW MEXICO. STRONG N WINDS WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WINDS WILL DISSIPATE BELOW 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER