000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 03N98W TO 03N104W TO 05N114W TO 04N133W TO 
05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM OF AXIS E OF 101W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND FROM CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 37N100W 
TO 32N100W THEN SW TO 14N140W.  VERY DRY ALOFT IN AIR MASS W OF 
AXIS.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 30N110W TO 24N120W 
TO 23N130W BRINGING FRESH NW BREEZE TO BOTH BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COASTS.  SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES MON AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT 
WITHIN 24 HRS IN W COAST AND WITHIN 48 HRS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SW JET CORE 170 KT ADVECTING ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...BUT LACK OF SYSTEM TO TURN 
MOISTURE INTO PRECIPITATION PRECLUDES A RAIN EVENT IN GULF OF 
MEXICO. 

SHARP UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRES 
CENTER 1026 MB AT 33N127W.  RIDGE COMPLETELY CURTAILS CLOUD 
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ALLOWING BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFIED 
SKIES N OF 15N W OF 120W.  

MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 07N103W KEEP DRY CONDITIONS 
FROM 10N-20N E OF 110W.  BUT NE-E FLOW DOES BRING SOUTH AMERICA 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ S OF 06N E OF 100W.  AREA OF SLIGHT 
MASS DIVERGENCE ENHANCES ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS E OF 
100W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE PROMPTS NE FRESH TRADES FROM 
06N-20N W OF 120W WHICH DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY WED 
AS RIDGE DRIFTS NE IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. 

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER WITHIN 24 HRS AND REACH 
FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W WITH FRESH NW BREEZE W OF BOUNDARY.  BY 
THE TIME FRONT REACH 30N130W TO 26N136W 24 HRS LATER...IT LOSES 
MOST OF ITS PUNCH AND REMAINS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WIND.  
ON THE OTHER HAND...HIGH PRES W OF COLD FRONT CARRIES LONG FETCH 
TO WINDS N OF BASIN ALLOWING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO SPREAD 
SE INTO E PAC WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES