000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 7N79W 4N90W 3N104W 5N112W 5N124W 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W-98W...AND 60 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE 
CONUS SW THROUGH 30N113W TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 21N133W
...AND CONTINUED SW TO NEAR 14N139W. THE RELATED SURFACE FEATURE
WAS ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM SRN ARIZONA SW TO
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N124W. TO THE SE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BROAD SCALE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 8N106W.
A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO ACROSS HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...AND TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDED
EXTENDED FROM THE ANTICYCLONE W TO 8N130W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET 
STREAM WITH CORE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 80-130 KT IS LOCATED E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS AND REACHED INTO THE AREA THROUGH 14N140W WHERE
IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NE TO 20N126W WHERE A JET MAXIMA
WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND CONTINUED NE TO
AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEWD TO OVER NRN MEXICO AND
WELL E OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW RESIDES WEST OF THE TROUGH AS DRY AIR 
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 400 NM NW OF THE 
TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
U.S. PLAINS WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE 
PACIFIC WATERS N OF 15N BECOMES ABSORBED INTO MEAN WESTERLY FLOW 
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SEEN AS A NEW SURGE OF LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 14 OR 15 FT IN THE NE WATERS 
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY OVER THE
FAR NRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN HIGH PRES JUST N OF AREA NEAR 33N130W AND LOW PRES OVER
THE SW U.S. CREATES A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GULF AND NE PACIFIC WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
FUNNEL S THROUGH THE GULF BY 48 HRS. W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NW 
TO N 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HRS AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS E AND WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ABOUT 450 NM NW OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NW CORNER IN 30 HRS
...THEN MOVE TO A LINE FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES FROM 30N133W TO 25N140W IN 48 HRS. THIS FRONT WILL MARK 
THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER SURGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS.
LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT SEAS MAY REACH
UP TO 16 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY 48 HRS WITH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING N-NE 20 KT IN 24 HRS...THEN VEER TO N-NE IN 48 HRS.

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS WAS OBSERVED WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY OF 6N-20N AND W OF 119W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISH SOME
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN SPEEDS BY 48 HRS AS THE HIGH TO THE
N WEAKENS. THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 102W IS 
COVERED BY SEAS OF AT LEAST 8 FT WITH THE HIGHEST UP TO 13 FT 
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR SW PORTION IN MIXED NW SWELL AND NE WIND 
WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE