000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W 07N84W 05N90W 05N130W 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE 
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS TO THE SW THROUGH 30N112W TO 
25N123W TO 16N140W. THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS 
ANALYZED FROM SW ARIZONA NEAR 32N114W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 
30N116W TO 27N122W. TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BROAD 
SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A MEAN AXIS 
ALONG 101W FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO WELL N ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN 
THE TROPICS IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE CENTERED 
NEAR 08N103W WITH ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO NEAR 
01N128W AND E-NE TO CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 80-130 KT 
IS LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS ALONG 14N140W 
23N120W THEN CONTINUES NE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW RESIDES WEST OF THE TROUGH AS DRY AIR 
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 400 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH S OF 30N...AND 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 30N. THE 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS 
WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N 
OF 15N BECOMES ABSORBED INTO MEAN WESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY 
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SEEN AS A NEW SURGE OF NW SWELLS 
SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA INDUCING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS POSSIBLY UP TO 14 FT N OF 
25N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODERATE NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ANTICIPATED 
BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND 
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND SW TEXAS. NW TO N 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS PARALLELING THE GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NW 
TO N 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD BEFORE WEAKENING 
DUE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY 
BETWEEN 07N AND 20N W OF 120W THAT WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
E OF 105W IS COVERED BY SEAS OF AT LEAST 8 FT WITH THE HIGHEST 
UP TO 13 FT OCCURRING OVER THE FAR SW PORTION IN MIXED NW SWELL 
AND NE WIND WAVES. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE SUNDAY. THE 
ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ONGOING OR 
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN