000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 08N82W 05N90W 05N110W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS OVER ARIZONA 
TO THE SW THROUGH 30N116W TO 25N130W TO 21N140W. THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC 
OCEAN REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA FROM 33N117W TO 30N121W. TO 
THE E AND SE OF THE TROUGH...BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A MEAN AXIS ALONG 102W FROM CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO WELL N ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE CANADIAN 
BORDER. THE ASSOCIATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE 
TROPICS IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE CENTERED NEAR 
08N104W WITH ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO NEAR 01N128W 
AND E-NE TO CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA. THE SUBTROPICAL JET 
STREAM WITH JET CORE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 80-130 KT IS LOCATED 
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS ALONG 16N140W 24N120W THEN 
CONTINUES NE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE TOP OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL 
CONFLUENT FLOW RESIDES WEST OF THE TROUGH AS DRY AIR AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 420 NM W OF THE TROUGH S OF 
30N...AND 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 30N. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE MOST 
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 18N 
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO MEAN WESTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN 
IMPACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
WILL BE SEEN AS A NEW SURGE OF NW SWELLS SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA INDUCING SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS POSSIBLY UP TO 14 FT N OF 26N WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 
HRS.

MODERATE NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ANTICIPATED 
BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND 
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND SW TEXAS. NW TO N 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS PARALLELING THE GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NW 
TO N 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
DAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

A LARGE AREA OF NE MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY 
BETWEEN 07N AND 21N W OF 120W THAT WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST OF OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY E OF 105W IS COVERED BY SEAS OF AT LEAST 8 FT 
WITH THE HIGHEST UP TO 13 FT OCCURRING OVER THE FAR SW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN MIXED NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES 
WITHIN THE TRADEWIND BELT. LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH THE MORNING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA WIND FIELD BELOW GALE 
FORCE...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. NO OTHER GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ONGOING OR ANTICIPATED TO 
OCCUR UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS 
LIKELY TO BEGIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN