000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092203 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAR 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 02N78W TO 06N90W TO 04N100W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIED WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 136W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NEVADA/UTAH NEAR 38N114W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO 25N140W. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1033 MB HIGH PRES LIES NEAR 32N136W WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...IS GENERATING NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 13 FT OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1710 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF SHORE N OF 28N WHILE THE 1850 UTC PASS CONFIRMED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE AS MUCH AS 600 NM W OF SHORE. THE UPPER LEVEL IMPETUS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND SHRINK IN AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 16 FT IN THE NW SWELL OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES A BROAD AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED UNTIL THU WHEN THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 27N137W...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL COMPRESS THE TRADES SOUTHWARD AND EXPAND THE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EASTWARD TO 115W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH OVER N WATERS AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 08N105W. BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE...MOIST W-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS FROM 15N140W INTO MEXICO NEAR 27N110W. THE TRANSPORTING MECHANISM IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH WINDS CORE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KT. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A STABLE PATTERN REMAINS WITH AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE TO ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO WESTERN COLOMBIA. THIS RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. GAP WINDS... FRESH WINDS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 06 TO 18 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER/HUFFMAN