000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 02N79W TO 04N85W TO 03N103W TO 05N130W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W 
AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N118W TO 
26N140W. THIS TROUGH AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING 
FOR NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT OFF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR 
NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A BROAD RIDGE IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 08N106W. BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE 
RIDGE...MOIST W-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM 
THE DEEP TROPICS NORTHEASTWARD FROM 11N-25N TO OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO. THE TRANSPORTING MECHANISM IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL 
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 KT LOCATED WITHIN ITS CORE. 
THIS SUBTROPICAL JET CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 22N140W AND 
TURNS E-NE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO 
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A STABLE PATTERN REMAINS WITH AN EAST TO 
WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA ACROSS 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 08N106W. THIS RIDGE COVERS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH IS HELPING TO INDUCE A 
COUPLE POCKETS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E 
OF 90W. ANOTHER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BETWEEN. THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ALONG 122W EXTENDING S OF 13N TO 05N. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA N 
OF 10N AND W OF 110W. A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 
25 KT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS EARLIER 
ASCAT PASSES AROUND 09/0442 UTC AND 09/0622 UTC CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF THE TRADES WHICH ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 
07N TO 24N W OF 120W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD... 
15-16 SECONDS...NW SWELLS WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 12 FT.  
ANOTHER OCCURRENCE OF NW SWELL CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL ALSO PROPAGATE 
SE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS MERGING WITH WIND WAVES GENERATED 
BY THE TRADES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL REACHING THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.      

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS A COUPLE 
OF THE GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. THESE EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 
TO 18 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN