000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAR 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N79W 4N91W 3N102W 7N114W 5N124W 3N132W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 108W-112W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-95W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-115W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT. OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THE SRN PORTION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED WRN TEXAS S TO NRN MEXICO...AND CONTINUED SW TO NEAR 17N114W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR SPREADING FROM W TO E IN THE ZONAL FLOW FROM 20N-29N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO BE FORCED TO ALONG 30N AND WELL N OF 30N AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NW SW TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DROPPING S WELL W OF THE AREA. RESIDUAL NW SWELLS OF UP 10 FT ARE OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 110W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELLS ON TUE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE FROM CHANGING VERY LITTLE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION IN ABOUT 24 HRS...AND REACH TO THE CENTRAL PORTION ON WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC W OF THE AREA THEN MOVES MORE E ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTION ON WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A FRESH LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 12 OR 13 FT. OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA...S OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA...A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERED THE REGION AND DOVE SEWD FROM 16N140W TO 14N129W TO 12N120W...THEN TURNED NE TO 17N133W AS IT ROUNDED THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUES NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. JET CORE WINDS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 90-130 KT. TO THE S OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC EXISTED W OF 120W AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 3N138W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WAS NOTED NEAR 7N106W WITH A RIDGE E TO NEAR 86W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN ITCZ CONVECTION BY PROVIDING VENTILATION ALOFT IN DIVERGENT FLOW. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN NICARAGUA SW TO NEAR 6N86W...BUT AMPLE DRY AIR N OF 8N AND E OF 92W TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WAS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 5N113W TO 12N112W WAS MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE TROUGH...IN COMBINATION WITH THE TAIL END OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-112W. UPPER LEVEL MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. HIGH PRES RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N140W EXTENDED SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N131W...AND CONTINUED SE TO 25N122W TO NEAR 21N110W. HIGH PRES WAS PRESENT N OF 15N AND W OF 107W. GAP WINDS... N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 HRS AS THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG SE MEXICO WEAKENS. N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24-30 HRS...HOWEVER RESIDUAL N SWELLS MIXED WITH SWELLS FROM THE SW MAY RESULT IN SEAS UP TO 8 FT S OF 5N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. A MORNING ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1600 UTC DETECTED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SPREADING TO AS FAR S AS 9N AND AND W TO NEAR 94W. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO JUST UNDER 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 30 HRS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE