000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 02N79W TO 03N100W TO 07N110W TO 05N125W 
TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
FROM 02N TO 04N E OF 80W AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 
95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF NEAR 
09N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 120W TO 123W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...
A FLAT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA W 
OF 115W...WITH MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW. A 110-130 KT JET STREAM 
ENTERS THE REGION AT 22N140W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY E TO THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND TURNS NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO 
SE TEXAS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN SW U.S. TO NW 
MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N 
OF LINE FROM 24N110W TO 20N120W TO 20N140W. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH 
LOCATED NEAR 7N99W DOMINATES THE EPAC E OF 105W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH A WEAK  UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN BETWEEN. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 
118W S OF 10N. I 

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST 
REGION DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. A BROAD 
SWATH OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A PAIR OF HI RESOLUTION ASCAT PASSES AT 
0502 UTC AND 0640 UTC CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE TRADES WHICH 
ARE ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 110W. THE 
HIGH PRE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE ALSO 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND 120W AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE 
SURFACE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER NEVADA AND ARIZONA. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N109W TO 4N112W. 
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS NEAR 9N118W.

THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY ADDITIONAL 
PULSES OF NW SWELL MIXED WITH THE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE 
BROAD AREA OF TRADES.   

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT AND 
WERE CONFIRMED BY A SHIP...9HJB9...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AN A 
MUCH EARLIER ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 20 
KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 
  
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE CONTINUE TO BLOW 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOUR BEFORE DROPPING TO 
BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. 


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR