000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAR 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 5N90W 6N100W 8N110W 7N121W 2N131W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-125W...ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W-120W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-95W. ...DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX MOVING SLOWLY E BETWEEN SRN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA EXTENDED A TROUGH SW TO 25N118W AND TO NEAR 17N120W. WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 121W-132W WITH ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FILTERING FROM W TO E IN FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING SHUNTED TO WELL N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/VORTEX EXTENDED INTO THE AREA FROM THE FAR NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 21N120W. SURFACE NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N AND W TO 130W WITH SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELLS ON TUE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE FROM CHANGING VERY LITTLE INTO TUE NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WELL W OF THE AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION IN ABOUT 24 HRS...AND REACH TO THE CENTRAL PORTION ON WED. A WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTION ON WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A FRESH LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 12 OR 13 FT. OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA...S OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA...A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERED THE REGION AND DOVE SEWD FROM 16N140W TO 14N129W TO 12N120W...THEN TURNED NE TO 17N133W AS IT ROUNDED THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUES NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. JET CORE WINDS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 60-90 KT. TO THE S OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC EXISTED W OF 120W AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 3N138W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WAS NOTED NEAR 8N108W WITH A RIDGE E TO NEAR 86W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN ITCZ CONVECTION BY PROVIDING VENTILATION ALOFT IN DIVERGENT FLOW. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN NICARAGUA SW TO NEAR 6N86W...BUT AMPLE DRY AIR N OF 8N AND E OF 92W TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WAS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FIRST EXTENDED FROM 5N122W TO 10N121W...AND THE SECOND ONE FROM 9N108W TO 12N106W. BOTH OF WHICH WERE PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT TO EXISTING CONVECTION NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ. RIDGING EXTENDED SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N140W...AND CONTINUED SE TO NEAR 22N118W. HIGH PRES WAS PRESENT N OF 17N AND W OF 116W. GAP WINDS... MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 18 HRS...WHILE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 42 HRS...AND PANAMA WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL WIND FIELD GUIDANCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE