000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 5N89W 5N91W 7N108W 7N120W 2N130W 
2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-92W...101W-107W AND WITHIN 180 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER SRN CALIFORNIA
EXTENDED A TROUGH SW TO 26N120W AND TO NEAR 19N123W. WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 124W-135W WITH ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND 
ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FILTERING FROM W TO E IN FAIRLY ZONAL 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM 
16N-28N. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/VORTEX 
EXTENDED INTO THE AREA FROM THE FAR NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 21N120W. SURFACE NW 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N AND W 
TO 130W.

OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA...S OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA...A 
JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERED THE REGION AND DOVE SEWD FROM 16N140W 
TO 14N129W TO 12N120W...THEN TURNED NE TO 17N133W AS IT ROUNDED
THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUES NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO. JET CORE WINDS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 60-90 KT. TO THE S OF
THE JET STREAM BRANCH THE UPPER FLOW WAS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC W 
OF 120W AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 3N139W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WAS NOTED NEAR 8N108W WITH A RIDGE E 
TO E TO NEAR 86W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN 
ITCZ CONVECTION BY PROVIDING VENTILATION ALOFT IN DIVERGENT FLOW.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED ALONG 107W/108W FROM
6N-11N...AND ALONG 123W/124W FROM 4N-9N...BOTH ALSO CONTRIBUTING
SOME TO ITCZ CONVECTION.

GAP WINDS...
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA.  WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HRS...WHILE 
THOSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST 
MODEL WIND FIELD GUIDANCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES