000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 07N114W TO 02N132W TO 02N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 84W-93W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 101W-124W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
HAS TROUGH DIG S OF 16N135W.  VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS W OF 
TROUGH AXIS WITH QUASI-ZONAL W WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  SURFACE LOW 
PRES 1007 MB AT 31N116W...INLAND IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...HEADS E-NE WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH CAUSED 
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NE PART OF BASIN.  ALTHOUGH MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED E SLIGHTLY...FROM 102W TO 97W...IT 
EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX FROM FURTHER SOUTHERN 
INTRUSION.  

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF BASIN WITH AXIS 
ALONG 135W.  BULK OF MOISTURE OVER RIDGE CREST REMAINS N OF 30N. 
ILL DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 04N99W ALLOWS CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ BY PROVIDING SMALL AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 31N116W TO 
25N118W 22N124W.  WHILE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...WINDS STILL 
REMAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCLUDING 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR 
LOW PRES EXPECTED AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS WRAPPED WITHIN 
120-150 NM OF CENTER.  LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELLS PROMPTED BY 
LOW PRES CENTER HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING SE THROUGH LAST SEVERAL 
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY BY END OF FORECAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA.  WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY MON WHILE GULFS OF 
PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES