000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 03N78W TO 06N105W TO 03N120W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 79W TO 82W AND FROM 90W TO 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
250 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL-TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 35N123W TO 23N123W. 
THIS TROUGH AND THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR 
A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS 30N121W TO 25N122W. STRONG 
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A GALE 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA W OF FRONT TO 128W. WINDS ARE 
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
THIS EVENING.

A BROAD RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 
102W AND DOMINATES N MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SW CONUS. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 
CORE JET SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE 
N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 22N140W 
AND TURNS NE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO INTO 
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID 
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
MEXICO. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A STABLE PATTERN REMAINS WITH AN EAST TO 
WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA TO NEAR 7N102W. THIS RIDGE COVERS SE MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. ANOTHER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 
BETWEEN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 106W EXTENDING S OF 13N 
TO THE EQUATOR. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA N 
OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 
25 KT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A MUCH 
EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AND A 1814 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF THE TRADES WHICH WERE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 5N TO 
18N W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD. 

MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD... 
16-17 SECONDS...NW SWELLS WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 12 FT.  
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF 
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD 
FRONT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL ALSO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
REGIONAL WATERS MERGING WITH THE WIND WAVES GENERATING BY THE 
TRADES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL REACHING THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN.      

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GAP 
AREAS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GULF OF FONSECA...GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND GULF OF PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. 
THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR