000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N79W TO 02N87W TO 06N104W TO 02M128W TO 02N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 90W-104W AND 110W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN CUT OFF CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 34N126W EXTEND TO 32N125W TO 15N140W.  TROUGH USHERS 
IN VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS W OF AXIS.  WELL ANCHORED BROAD MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 102W BLOCKS TROUGH FROM 
DIGGING FURTHER SE AND FORCES IT NE.  SURFACE LOW PRES 1006 MB 
...NOW AT 32N122W...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO 27N127W BRING 
GALE FORCE WINDS N OF FRONT.  SURFACE LOW PRES FORECAST TO MOVE 
INLAND ACROSS N TIP OF BAJA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.  PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE W OF TROUGH BRINGS IN STABLE ZONAL WINDS 
ACROSS E PAC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH ADDITIONAL SWATH OF DRY AIR 
EXTEND TO CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO 17N.  S OF DRY SWATH... 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENHANCES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE 
ALONG ITCZ TO PROMPT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB NW OF BASIN MOVES INTO E PAC 
INCREASING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FRESH TRADES IN ITS 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY.  

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES