000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 2N79W 6N100W 03N125W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-7N BETWEEN 90W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO 32N124W TO 21N128W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
BEHIND THE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 12N-29N W OF 125W. A 115-125 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 
20N140W TO 22N120W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO NW 
MEXICO. SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. A BROAD 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH...GENERALLY N OF 20N 
AND E OF 115W...INCLUDING NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 3N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 90W-105W.

SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 12N AND W 
OF 115W. A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT IS NOTED 
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD 
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N123W TO 28N127W...A SURFACE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST N OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE WINDS W 
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE W OF THE 
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E AND 60 NM W OF THE 
FRONT. OTHERWISE LARGE NW SWELLS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 
115W.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. ONE 
FROM 8N96W TO 3N98W AND ANOTHER FROM 7N-2N ALONG 118W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH.  

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS  GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA ARE 
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS