000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAR 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 02N78W TO 06N100W TO 04N115W TO 02N124W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 96W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 97W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 06N11W AND NEAR 3N127W. ...DISCUSSION... A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE N WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 31N125W TO 21N130W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SLIDES SWD ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BRUSHES THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE DIGGING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS CLIPPING THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N130W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND IT WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION WITHIN AROUND 18 HOURS. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOR 12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 06/1800 UTC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. THE FNMOC EFS GALE PROBABILITY INDICATES NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN FORECAST WATERS NEAR 30N130W. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...GENERALLY N OF 20N AND E OF 120W...INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE JET SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 21N140W AND TURNS NE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE SW CONUS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A STABLE PATTERN REMAINS WITH AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 6N92W THEN TURNING N-NW TO SE MEXICO. THIS RIDGE ALSO COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. ANOTHER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN BETWEEN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N113W TO THE EQUATOR AT 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A MUCH EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AND A 1836 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE TRADES WHICH WERE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 4N TO 20N W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ... ONE EXTENDS FROM 8N94W TO 3N96W AND ANOTHER GOES FROM 07115W TO 01N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST. MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD... 16-17 SECONDS...NW SWELLS WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 12 FT. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL IS JUST ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION OF AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL ALSO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS MERGING WITH THE WIND WAVES GENERATING BY THE TRADES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL REACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GAP AREAS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GULF OF FONSECA...GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR