000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N82W TO 06N89W TO 03N97W TO 06N106W TO 
03N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 84W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 108W-119W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N131W TO 
21N140W JUST ENTERED NW PART OF BASIN DIGGING S.  WELL DEFINED 
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX FORMS WITHIN 24 HRS JUST N 
OF 32N WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES 1006 MB DEVELOPING WITH 
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING E PAC JUST OFF NORTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIDING IN SW 80 KT 
JET CORE WHICH COULD TRIGGER HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS IT 
APPROACHES COAST.  PRESENT FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED INCREASE TO 
STRONG AS COLD FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS ENTERS AREA WITHIN 36 
HOURS.  STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL 
EXPECTED IN WAKE OF FRONT.  GFS GUIDANCE FLASHES GALE FORCE 
WINDS FOR SHORT TIME WHILE NAM AND ECMWF STOP SHORT OF GALE.  
FORECAST HOLDS AT 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS UPPER SUPPORT 
APPEARS TO MOVE TOO FAST OUT OF AREA.   

ELSEWHERE BROAD RIDGE APPEARS WELL ANCHORED AT 10N100W WITH 
CREST EXTENDING N ALONG 100W EXPECTED TO BLOCK ABOVE MENTIONED 
CYCLONE FROM MOVING INLAND ALONG 30N AND SHIFTING IT NE.

RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SEPARATED FROM PREVIOUS RIDGE 
BY ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH.  SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION TAKES 
ADVANTAGE OF SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OF MOISTURE 
PUSHED OVER WATER BY RIDGE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF ITS AXIS ALONG 90W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB WELL NW OF 
BASIN DRIFTS E WITH STRONG NE TRADES ALONG ITS SE PERIPHERY. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS. 

TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-19 SECONDS...SWELLS SPREAD SE ACROSS 
BASIN WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 16 FT.  SWELLS PROPAGATE SE WITH 
OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS SLOWLY DECAYING WITHIN 48 HRS.  

GAP WINDS...
STRONG WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE AS CONFIRMED BY 
ASCAT PASS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS  
30 KT TODAY.  WINDS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  PATTERN ALSO 
PRODUCING INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS AREA WITHIN NEXT FEW DAYS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES