000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI MAR 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N80W TO 05N110W TO 04N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. ...DISCUSSION... A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 32N132W TO 26N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SLIDES SWD ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BRUSHES THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE DIGGING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR N WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AND REACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE SAT AS A TROUGH. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND IT WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA WITHIN AROUND 36 HOURS. WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PER THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER THE OTHER NWP MODELS DO NOT SHOW WINDS AS STRONG. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...GENERALLY N OF 20N AND E OF 125W...INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE JET SPEEDS OF 120-150 KT CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE JET BECOMES APPARENT NEAR 22N125W AND TURNS NE ACROSS N-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A STABLE PATTERN REMAINS WITH AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 9N95W. THIS RIDGE ALSO COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 4N104W. S TO SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AND E OF THE CIRCULATION ARE TRANSPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N102W. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N124W TO 3N126W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A 0604 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE TRADES WHICH WERE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 6N TO 20N W OF 118W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF THESE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD. A TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-19 SECONDS...SWELLS IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 13 FT. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE WITH OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS SLOWLY DECREASING. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF AREA LATER THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR N WATERS. GAP WINDS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT AND WERE CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER HI RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS. A 0242 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 KT THIS MORNING DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE AREA. OVERALL THE AREA OF WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SAME PATTERN IS ALSO PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS WILL LAST BEYOND 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB