000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050336 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI MAR 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 04N100W TO 05N102W TO 04N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF U.S AND DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AND WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH BUY WILL REMAIN N OF AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD REACHING NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND IT WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA WITHIN AROUND 36 HOURS. WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. EAST OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THERE IS A RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MAINLY THE REGION N OF 20N E OF 125W...INCLUDING ALSO BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE JET SPEEDS OF 110-130 KT IS ACROSS THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE JET ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 18N140W TURNING NE ACROSS N-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MORE OF THE SAME. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 9N95W. THIS RIDGE ALSO COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 4N104W. S TO SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AND E OF THE CIRCULATION ARE TRANSPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N105W. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N122W TO 3N124W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N124W. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS CROSSING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A 1858 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE TRADES WHICH WERE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 6N TO 17N W OF 118W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF THESE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD. A TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-18 SECONDS...SWELLS IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 13 FT. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE WITH OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS SLOWLY DECREASING. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF AREA FRI EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR N WATERS. GAP WINDS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT AND WERE CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER HI RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PER AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS. A SHIP NEAR 11N88W AT AROUND 0000 UTC ALSO REPORTED NE WINDS 25 KT. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. SHIP 9HJB9 IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REPORTED N WINDS OF 30 KT BUT A QUALITY CONTROL SHOWED THAT THE SHIP IS AROUND 7 KT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL. SO...WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LATEST RUN OF THE NWP MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS WILL LAST BEYOND 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR