000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 03N89W TO 05N100W TO 06N118W TO 05N127W TO 
06N136W TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 85W-103W AND WITHIN 180 
NM OF AXIS FROM 116W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N130W TO 10N140W 
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SE OF AXIS IN 130 KT JET 
CORE THAT ROUNDS ITS BASE TURNING NE ACROSS N-CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND GULF OF 
MEXICO OVER CREST OF FLATTENED RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 103W.  
ANTICYCLONE GYRE AT 09N109W ASSISTS IN SUPPLYING PART OF ABOVE 
MENTIONED TROPICAL MOISTURE BY MERGING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM 
ITCZ INTO IT.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 116W FROM 05N-09N ACTS 
AS MECHANICAL UPLIFT FOR ITCZ SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AXIS.

E-W MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING INTO E PAC ALONG 08N-09N TO 100W.  WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX EMBEDDED AT 05N104W SPLITS BOTH 
ANTICYCLONES.  SMALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN VORTEX AND 
RIDGE ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ NEAR 110W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT 32N117W TO 25N132W PUSHED BY 1033 MB HIGH PRES BRING 
FRESH NW-N WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA JUST N OF 26N.  
PRES GRADIENT S OF RIDGE TO ITCZ RESULTS IN LARGE AREA OF FRESH 
TRADES FROM 6N TO 20N W OF 120W.  LITTLE CHANGE IN AREA OF 
TRADES EXPECTED OVER NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES CONTINUE TO 
BUILD EWD.   

TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-18 SEC...SWELLS SPREADS SE ACROSS 
BASIN WITH HEIGHTS OF UP TO 12 FT BUT CONTINUE INCREASING BEYOND 
END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

GAP WINDS...
STRONG N WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE W OF 94W WITH 
SEAS TO 10 FT PERSISTING FOR 24 HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING.

FRESH NE WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO INCREASE TO STRONG WITHIN 
NEXT 24 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS STATIONARY 
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN FORCES SWATH OF STRONG WIND 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  CARIBBEAN FRONT ALSO PRODUCE INCREASE 
FRESH WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA BEGIN WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES