000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 05N90W TO 03N110W TO 05N123W 
THEN FROM 05N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N114W TO 01N111W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 125W. A 90-130 KT JET 
STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TURNING NE ACROSS THE N 
WATERS THEN E CROSSING CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT CLIPS THE FAR N WATERS BETWEEN 125W 
AND 130W.  

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 9N95W. THIS 
RIDGE ALSO COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 13N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 108W. S TO SW UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EPAC INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 6N120W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE 
SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDS 
FROM 9N124W TO 3N125W. 

BOTH A MUCH EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AND A RECENT ASCAT DATA  
CAPTURED A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDING IN BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH 
SLIDES EWD. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRES 
OVER MEXICO WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
COAST OF N BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.   

A TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-18 SECONDS...SWELLS IS SPREADING SE 
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 14 FT. THIS 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE 
FORCE...HOWEVER 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE 
THURSDAY. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 14N94W AT AROUND 0000 UTC REPORTED 
N WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 10 FT. 
  
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN THE NEXT 06 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN 
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED N OF 5N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR