000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 05N95W TO 07N111W THEN FROM 
05N117W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 107W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 121W TO 123W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND NEAR 
06N125W. 


...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 125W. A 90-120 KT JET 
STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NE FROM 15N140W 
OVER THE N WATERS THEN E ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 150 KT. 
THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS CLIPPING 
THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 29N136W. A DISSIPATING  
COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOTED ALONG LINE FROM 25N131W TO 18N140W. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 8N96W. THIS 
RIDGE ALSO COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO TO 10N107W TO THE EQUATOR AT 
108W. S TO SW WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ARE 
TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EPAC INTO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 6N120W DOMINATES THE SW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 114W AND 125W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDS 
FROM 9N112W TO 4N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

A 1738 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDING IN BEHIND 
THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES 
OVER MEXICO WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
COAST OF N BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 
HOURS.  

A TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-18 SECONDS...SWELLS IS ADVANCING SE 
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS HEIGHTS OF UP TO 16 FT OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE 
FORCE...HOWEVER 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE 
THURSDAY. 
  
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR