000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 1N100W 4N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 121W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 125W. A 90-110 KT JET 
STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 15N140W TO 
24N126W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 120 KT...THE JET CONTINUES 
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW 
NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 8N96W. THIS 
RIDGE ALSO COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALSO IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N105W TO 10N107W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 110W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
NE WITHIN 540 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 6N122W DOMINATES THE SW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
IN THIS AREA.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N118W TO 28N130W TO 
21N132W. LARGE NW SWELLS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...BUT ARE IN THE 
10-15 FT RANGE N OF 20N W OF 115W. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES HIGH
PRES RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND TRADES BACK TO 20-25 KT FROM 6N-22N
W OF 125W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
8N111W TO 3N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 4N. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND BELOW 20 KT BY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY THIS 
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS