000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED MAR 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N100W TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 80 NM N OF AXIS AND 40 NM S OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 125W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 90-110 KT JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE N WATERS FROM 18N140W TO NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM 30N121W TO 25N126W. AT THIS POINT... THE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. N TO NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE NOTED S OF 23N W OF FRONT PER A MUCH EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AND AN ASCAT DATA FROM 1938 UTC. NW SWELL TRAIN WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17 TO 18 SECONDS FOLLOWS THE FRONT... RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 20 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE N WATERS. EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 105W COVERING NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE SW CONUS. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THESE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 8N100W. THIS RIDGE ALSO COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N110W TO 10N111W TO THE EQUATOR AT 107W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 6N127W DOMINATES THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF N BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE NOTED EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...ONE ALONG 116W/117W FROM 4N TO 8N AND ANOTHER THAT RUNS FROM 10N129W TO 4N131W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM EAST OF THE AXES BUT PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE SECOND ONE. GAP WINDS... BASED ON THE NWP COMPUTER MODEL...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS INDUCED BY A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE DAY SHOWED A SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION OR ROPE CLOUD MOVING OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN INDICATION OF THE GAP FLOW. AN EARLIER HI-ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THIS AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS BUT THE GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR