000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 03N85W TO 04N95W TO 06N114W 
THEN FROM 07N118W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 85W 
AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 105-110 KT JET STREAM 
BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS NE FROM 
20N140W TO NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM 30N122W 
TO 20N140W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NW OF 
FRONT PER SURFACE DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1800 UTC.
NW SWELL TRAIN WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17 TO 18 SECONDS 
FOLLOWS THE FRONT...RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 20 FT OVER THE FAR NW 
PORTION. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING THE EQUATOR 
LATE WED. 

EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE SE ARIZONA BORDER TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THESE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA 
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 8N100W. THIS RIDGE ALSO 
COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA. ALSO IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 18N112W TO 10N115W TO THE EQUATOR AT 
104W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE 
WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IN THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA IS NEAR 5N135W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A 
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. 
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING A SHALLOW LINE OF 
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT DELINEATES 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GAP FLOW. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 
NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THIS AREA.
  
WINDS AREA ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR