000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 6N90W 3N105W 6N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 105W-108W AND FROM 123W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 105-110 KT JET STREAM 
ENTERS THE AREA AT 26N140W TO 32N120W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 
120 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NW OF THE JET.
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
THE SE ARIZONA BORDER TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 8N100W. ALSO IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 18N115W 
TO THE EQUATOR AT 123W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE 
WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IN THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA IS NEAR 5N135W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA. 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N214W TO 25N130W TO 21N140W. A FEW 
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS 20-25 KT 
WINDS ARE S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT AND LARGE NW SWELLS ARE MOVING 
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SWELLS COULD REACH 20 FT OVER THE FAR 
NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE 
ITCZ FROM 9N114W TO 3N115W A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 
NM E OF THE TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. 
THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS