000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG A 
LINE FROM 06N77W TO 05N95W TO 06N107W TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 
ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 02N TO 05N AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST FROM 05N TO 07N. A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN 
THE ITCZ FROM 09N106W TO 02N109W HAD SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF ITS AXIS FROM 05N TO 08N AND 
WITHIN 330 NM E OF ITS AXIS FROM 02N TO 04N.

...DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW IS FOUND ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 
SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDING W FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 19N TO 
THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM 
18N118W TO 00N124W. A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DENOTES THE AREA OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN 
MEXICO FROM THE ITCZ ALONG THE JET AXIS. THE BROKEN CIRRUS 
CLOUDS EXTEND EASTWARD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO INCLUDE THE 
CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THIS SOUTHERN UPPER STREAM 
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE PROGRESSIVE DEEP-LAYERED 
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER N WATERS SHOVES IT EASTWARD. THE WINDSAT 
PASS FROM 0308 UTC SHOWED NE WINDS TO 30 KT BEHIND THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT S OF 24N. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 
THE DAY TODAY AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PUSHES INLAND INTO THE WESTERN 
U.S.. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY WED OVER NE WATERS. SEAS ARE 
CURRENTLY TO 20 FT IN NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS SWELL 
WILL DAMPEN AS IT SPREADS SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 1020 MB 
HIGH PRES CURRENTLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT NEAR 26N122W WILL MERGE 
WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES W OF THE FRONT TODAY. THE 0526 UTC ASCAT 
AND 0304 UTC WINDSAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TRADES IN PLACE OVER 
WESTERN WATERS FROM 06N TO 19N W OF 125W...WITH MODERATE TRADES 
FOUND IN THE SW CORNER OF THIS REGION. LOOK FOR THE AREA OF 
TRADES TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AND 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE ITCZ INCREASES. THE RIDGE 
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WED AHEAD OF A NEW NORTHERN STREAM 
COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO N WATERS. WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL 
BE LIGHT...BUT THE INCREASED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AHEAD OF 
IT AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE NW TO 
N WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

GAP WINDS...
WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW CENTERED ALONG 30W LIES A DEEP LAYER 
LOW OVER THE U.S. STATES BORDERING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE 
LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND APPROACH 
NEAR STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE WED EVENING. 

AS THIS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 20 
KT FIRST IN THE GULF OF FONSECA TUE NIGHT AND THEN IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO BY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF 
FONSECA WED AFTERNOON...BUT MODERATE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER