000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N100W TO 05N125W TO 04N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 23N W OF 130W. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NE. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY 
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N129W TO 
22N140W. AS THE MAIN ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER N OF 
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. 

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A 110-130 KT JET STREAM 
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 24N140W THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ABOVE THEN TURNING ENE THROUGH 32N124W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NW OF THE JET...WITH BROKEN 
HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE JET. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N117W TO 22N121W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 20N-30N W OF 110W. A STRONG WELL DEFINED 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER FAR NE 
TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. 
A 125 KT NW JETSTREAM IS ON THE W OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 
SW NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NE MEXICO. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA TO 7N105W. ALSO IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 18N125W TO THE EQUATOR AT 133W. HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE WITHIN 480 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE IS USHERING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 18 FT WITH LARGE NW SWELLS. THESE SWELLS 
ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEA HEIGHTS 
REACHING 20 FT OVERNIGHT AND TUE. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1018 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 27N124W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE 
ITCZ FROM 10N105W TO 3N108W SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 4N-8N.

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE 
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT 
ABOUT 40 KT OVERNIGHT TUE...THEN DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE ON 
WED.  

MODERATE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB