000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 03N100W TO 06N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND AS IT 
DOES SO THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE 
WITHIN 48 HOURS. 

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A 110-130 KT JET STREAM 
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 25N140W THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ABOVE THEN TURNING ENE THROUGH 32N125W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NW OF THE JET...WITH SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE JET. DOWNSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N117W TO 20N128W. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OTHERWISE MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 20N-30N W OF 110W. A STRONG WELL 
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
EASTERN TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS EASTERN 
MEXICO. A 125 KT NW JETSTREAM IS ON THE W OF THE TROUGH AND 
EXTENDS FROM SW NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NE MEXICO. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA TO 7N105W. ALSO IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 18N125W TO THE EQUATOR AT 134W. HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE WITHIN 480 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE IS USHERING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 18 FT WITH LARGE NW SWELLS. THESE SWELLS 
ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEA HEIGHTS 
REACHING 20 FT LATER TONIGHT AND TUE. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
27N123W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
10N103W TO 3N108W SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 4N-8N.

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ONCE 
AGAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE EVENING. 

MODERATE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF 
OF PANAMA WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVERNIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB