000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010320 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAR 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 02N79W TO 03N90W TO 01N105W TO 06N117W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W... AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N145W TO SEVERAL HUNDRED NM N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS SWEEPING E AT 25 TO 30 KT AND PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FURTHER E...A WELL-DEFINED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N126W THROUGH 18N140W TO AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER SE NEW MEXICO AND IS MOVING ESE 15 TO 20 KT WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 120W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NW MEXICO WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 105W. MOVING TO THE TROPICS...A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N128W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 07N140W. A WELL-DEFINED JET EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 07N140W TO 20N128W THEN CURVES E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO NRN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG THE JET ARE GENERALLY FROM 90 TO 110 KT ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. A BROAD BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IS LOCATED UP TO 15 DEGREES S OF THE JET. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N129W AND WILL MOVE E TO 28N120W IN 24 HOURS. THE GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 130W. MARINE WISE...A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SWELL OF UP TO 15 SECONDS WITH HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 17 FT NW OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 10N140W CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA. THE UKMET AND NOAA WAVE WATCH MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SEA HEIGHTS THIS EVENING. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE E-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER SET OF LONGER PERIOD SWELLS...17-18 SECONDS WILL BUILD OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. E OF 100W... AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 8N98W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE AREA E OF 100W WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT N OF 10N. DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GAP WINDS... RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY TUE EVENING. GAP WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND HAVE NOW BEGUN IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB