000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282157 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN FEB 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 02N100W TO 06N118W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 05N108W...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W... AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N149W TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS. FURTHER E...A WELL-DEFINED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N125W THROUGH 18N140W TO AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO AND IS MOVING ESE 15 KT WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 120W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NW MEXICO WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 110W. MOVING TO THE TROPICS...A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N128W TO 07N140W. A WELL-DEFINED JET EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 07N140W TO 20N128W AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO NRN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG THE JET ARE GENERALLY FROM 90 TO 110 KT ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. A BROAD BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IS LOCATED UP TO 15 DEGREES S OF THE JET. AT THE SURFACE A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N128W AND WILL MOVE E TO 28N120W IN 24 HOURS. THE GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 130W. MARINE WISE...A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SWELL OF UP TO 15 SECONDS WITH HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 18 FT NW OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 10N140W CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA. THE UKMET AND MWW3 WAVE MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SEA HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THIS AREA AND THEN BUILD OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. E OF 100W... AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 8N98W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE AREA E OF 100W WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT N OF 10N. DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GAP WINDS... A PARTIAL WINDSAT PASS FROM 1258 UTC AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT GALE CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH NE WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT. GAP WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND HAVE NOW BEGUN IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB