000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280939 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN FEB 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 04N77W TO 03N85W TO 06N99W TO 04N113W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 88W AS WELL AS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... SPLIT FLOW IS FOUND ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDING W FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO 10N140W. A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DENOTES THE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO FROM THE ITCZ ALONG THE JET AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM BRINGS A NEW DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH INTO NW WATERS LATE MON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL THIN OUT BY MON EVENING AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND VERTICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TUE. 1022 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT NEAR 29N136W WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES MON AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES W OF THE FRONT. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WATERS FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 123W WILL SHRINK WESTWARD BY MON ALONG WITH THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 22 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS BY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY...NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH FROM ARIZONA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 20N117W HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 15N W OF 120W...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 22 FT ACCORDING TO THE WW3 GUIDANCE. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE JASON-1 PASS FROM 0230 UTC. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA AT 0600 UTC. 20 KT SW TO W WINDS CAN BE FOUND N OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0432 UTC AND THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 0202 UTC SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS OVER NE FORECAST WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...STEERED BY THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. GAP WINDS... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY MID-MORNING SUN AS WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW MEXICO. ANOTHER GALE WARNING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN TUE AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND USHERS NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT THAT INDUCED THE GALE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INCREASE WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THEN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOLLOWED BY THE GULF OF PANAMA BY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR FUNNELING WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PANAMA. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MON MORNING...AIDED BY THE MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW AND THE MORE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION WELL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH FAVORS FUNNELING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KT BY TUE MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER