000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N77W TO 03N101W TO 04.5N114W TO 
03N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
AXIS W OF 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE W PART OF THE 
AREA N OF 20N WITH RIDGING PREVAILING E OF THIS FEATURE. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08N140W TO 15N125W 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. S OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET...AN INCREASE IN ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 116W AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS STRENGTHENED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND 
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG 05N W OF 116W. IN 
TURN...THIS HAS HELPED RESTRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE N 
OF THIS CONVECTION WITH CORE SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 70 KT 
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO 100 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W HAS HELPED MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
ALONG 5N E OF 90W. A WEAKENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DUE TO A 
LACK OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 115W HAS ENABLED 
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO FILL BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE 
AREA FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE 
GENERATING A LARGE NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO ABOUT 23 FT.  
THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. E 
OF THE FRONT...DISSIPATING 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 27.5N124W. AN AREA OF 20-25 KT NE-E TRADES PERSISTS IN THE 
TRADEWIND BELT W OF 117W DUE TO A TIGHT PRES BETWEEN THE HIGH 
AND LOWER PRES WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN AND 
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE DISSIPATES AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH 
A TROUGH OVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE HIGH W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
NW WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE FROM 26N TO 29N ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 18 HOURS AS THE HIGH 
DISSIPATES. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH 
THEY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A 
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF 
MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELAS PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASING TO 20 
KT SAT MORNING HOURS AND THEN TO GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE EARLY SUN AS THE 
FLOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
VEERS.

NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE TO BE CHANNELED THROUGH THE 
PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICO INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT HELPED GENERATE THESE GAP WINDS 
DISSIPATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY 
TONIGHT. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT REACHES NICARAGUA IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 KT SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL