000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N77W TO 03N100W TO 05N113W TO 
03N124W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF 
THE AXIS W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 47N436W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPIRALING FROM IT 
AND INTO OUR AREA NEAR 32N135W TO 30N140W WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY 
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N123W TO 32N119W. LATEST WATER 
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY DRY AIR UNDER 
SUBSIDENCE S OF THESE FEATURES FROM ROUGHLY 15N TO 24N. A 
DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 25N108W ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N120W TO 10N150W. A JET 
STREAM IS S OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT. 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT S OF THE JET STREAM AXIS. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N84W TO 02N101W.

AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
28N124W. AN AREA OF 20-25 KT NE-E TRADES EXISTS FROM 05N TO 18N 
W OF 120W DUE TO A TIGHT PRES BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN 
COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. 
A COLD FRONT IS NW OF THE HIGH STRETCHING FROM 30N134W TO 
24N140W. A 0654 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 
240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
MARCHES E TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA AS IT RUNS INTO PERSISTENT 
HIGH PRES TO ITS E. BEHIND THE FRONT NW WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED 
UP ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITHIN 48 HOURS. 

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH 
A TROUGH OVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE HIGH W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
NW WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE FROM 26N TO 29N ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 18 HOURS. SW WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IN 36 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES 
TOWARD THE PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH 
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH 
THEY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A 
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF 
MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELAS PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASING TO 20 
KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN TO GALE FORCE BY 30 HOURS. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN AS THE FLOW 
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BECOMES 
E-SE.

WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHING AS FAR AS EASTERN PANAMA IN 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE TO BE 
CHANNELED THROUGH THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICO INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 
12 HOURS THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 KT IN 48 HOURS AS THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY