000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 03N87W TO 06N105W TO 
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W AND BETWEEN 109W AND 
117W AND W OF 133W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH OVER THE EXTREME NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 25N144W TO 31N134W. UPPER 
MOISTURE IS SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA N OF 28N W 
OF 125W. TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
ALONG 31N91W TO 23N125W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER S 
AMERICA AT 07N68W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 08N105W TO 
08N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING NE 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND CENTRAL AMERICA...GENERALLY TO 
THE SE OF LINE FROM 12N106W TO 23N80W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER 
AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 30N84W 
TO 22N106W TO 16N140W WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR NOTED ELSEWHERE N 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N132W ESTIMATED AT 
1025 MB WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 25N140W. THE HIGH CENTER 
WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NE ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY NW WINDS TO 30 KT 
AND LARGE NW SWELL...DRIVING COMBINED SEAS TO ABOUT 23 FT BEHIND 
FRONT. IN THE MEANTIME THE NORTHERLY FLOW E OF THE HIGH IS 
SUPPORTING WINDS TO 20 KT AS FAR E AS THE W COAST BAJA 
PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 15 KT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 105W. 

NW TO N WINDS PULSING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH.

GAP WINDS...
GALE CONDITIONS IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON 
AND BELOW 20 KT ON FRI. NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA 
WILL ALSO DIMINISH TODAY WHILE THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
SUPPORTING NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON