000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250954 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU FEB 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 04N87W TO 06N105W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE AXIS AND 200 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 117W AND BETWEEN 132W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N127W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE W OF THE TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12N140W TO 19N110W THEN E-NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY E OF 113W. ELSEWHERE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ALONG 06N E OF 112W. ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ...AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS WELL AS PROVIDE ENERGY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N130W. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 105W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF TRADEWINDS...20 TO 25 KT...FROM 04N TO 20N W OF 115W. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN AND WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THU. THE WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO PENETRATE NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 24N THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EAST. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF TRADES S OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATING...WINDS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE FRI. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY W OF 95W. THESE NW SWELLS ARE COMBINING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST TRADES W OF 115W. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT... NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS VEER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E-SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU AS WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER S ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA WILL DECREASE...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE THU. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES S ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BEGINS DISSIPATING AND WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DECREASE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN