000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU FEB 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05.5N77W TO 03N89W TO 06N103W TO 03.5N133W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E PART OF THE AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N127W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12N140W TO 12N115W THEN NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ALONG 06N E OF 130W. ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ...AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS WELL AS PROVIDE ENERGY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N129W. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 105W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 115W. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THU. THE WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF TRADES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATING...WINDS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY W OF 95W. THESE NW SWELLS ARE COMBINING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST TRADES W OF 115W. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS VEER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING AS WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER S ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA WILL DECREASE...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THU AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES S ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DISSIPATES AND WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DECREASE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AL