000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08.5N83W TO 05.5N100W TO 06N113W TO 
04.5N128W TO 02N135W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 105W AND 114W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E PART OF THE 
AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N115W TO 20N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH. SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES 
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12N140W TO 112N115W THEN NE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT 
PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS NOTED ALONG 05N E OF 130W. ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 

AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N133W. 
THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 105W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 
THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A 
LARGE AREA OF TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 
110W AS DEPICTED BY 1820 UTC ASCAT PASS. WITH THE HIGH REMAINING 
QUASI-STATIONARY...AND MAINTAINING INTENSITY THROUGH THU 
AFTERNOON...THE AREA OF TRADES WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH LATE 
THU...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE AND DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THE TRADES. THE 
WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO 
SHIFT INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. NW 
TO N WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING...WINDS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI.  

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY W OF 95W. THESE NW SWELLS ARE 
COMBINING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST 
TRADES W OF 115W.  

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE WARNING IS 
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE 
WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING 
BELOW GALE FORCE THU NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BRIEFLY 
AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING WITH THE WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCED WITH NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES S ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO LATE THU AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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AL