000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N80W TO 05N90W TO 06N115W TO TO 
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 
08N BETWEEN 84W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
04N TO 08N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W...AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 
122W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS 
AN AXIS SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO SW MEXICO NEAR 19N105W....WITH 
RIDGING PREVAILING W OF THIS TROUGH BEYOND 140W. A VERY 
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 17N140W TO 
20N120W ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE JET CORE WINDS OF 70 TO 
110 KT AT 250 MB. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL 
TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 10N115W TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO A 
MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS NOTED ALONG 06N E OF 120W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND 
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT REGIME IS CONTINUING TO 
ENHANCE AND VENTILATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 

AT THE SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26N129W WITH 
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR 
14N105W TO THE SE...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER 
TO NEAR 25N140W TO THE WSW. THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING IS 
CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 
100W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF 
NE TO E TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 110W AS 
DEPICTED BY ASCAT PASS. WITH THE HIGH REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY 
...AND MAINTAINING INTENSITY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...THE AREA OF 
TRADES WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH LATE THU RELAXING THEREAFTER. 
MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE W OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ALONG THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY W OF 95W. THESE NW SWELLS ARE 
COMBINING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST 
TRADES W OF 115W. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 16 FT. 

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH SE AND FUNNEL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE JUST STARTING THIS MORNING AT 15Z. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO 
PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE DISSIPATING BELOW GALE FORCE BY 
FRI MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BRIEFLY 
AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING AT 12Z...AND THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SIX HOURS LATER AT 18Z.  WINDS WILL THEN DROP BELOW 20 
KT FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA