000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N82W TO 06N88W TO 06N105W TO 
07N114W TO 02N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS AND 200 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 113W AND BETWEEN 122W AND 129W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS 
AN AXIS SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 22N115W....WITH RIDGING PREVAILING W OF THIS 
TROUGH. A VERY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 
17N140W TO 20N120W ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE JET CORE WINDS 
OF 70 TO 110 KT AT 250 MB. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT 
PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 10N115W TO OVER 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO A MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
ELSEWHERE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ALONG 06N E OF 
120W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT REGIME IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE AND VENTILATE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 

AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N126W WITH 
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR 
14N105W TO THE SE...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER 
TO NEAR 25N140W TO THE WSW. THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING IS 
CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 
100W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF 
NE TO E TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 115W AS 
DEPICTED BY A 24/0550 UTC ASCAT PASS. WITH THE HIGH REMAINING 
QUASI-STATIONARY...AND MAINTAINING INTENSITY THROUGH THU 
AFTERNOON...THE AREA OF TRADES WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH LATE THU 
RELAXING THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT JUST 
TO THE WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS CREATING A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 
RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE 
TO FUNNEL ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE NW TO N 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY W OF 95W. THESE NW SWELLS ARE 
COMBINING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST 
TRADES W OF 115W. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 16 FT. 

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH SE AND FUNNEL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 KT BY LATE WED MORNING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO 
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST 
THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE DISSIPATING BELOW GALE FORCE BY FRI 
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BRIEFLY 
AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING AS WINDS CHANNELING 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN DROP BELOW 20 KT THU AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WITH NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO EARLY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN