000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE FEB 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07.5N78W TO 04.5N89W TO 07.5N104W TO 06N113W TO 06N122W TO 01N130W TO 01N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS AND 90 NM S OF AXIS E OF 84.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 84.5W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF AN UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SW EXTENDS ACROSS OLD MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N118W....WITH RIDGING PREVAILING W OF THIS TROUGH. A VERY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 12N140W TO 15N125W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE JET CORE WINDS OF 70 TO 110 KT. THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NE TO E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ALOFT A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ALONG 06.5N E OF 125W. ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND PROVIDING FUEL TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE N. AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N127W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THERE TO NEAR 14N107W TO ITS EAST...AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 25N140W TO ITS WEST. THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING IS CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 100W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 21N W OF 115W AS CAPTURED BY EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E WHILE THE AREA OF TRADES AROUND THE E AND S PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO GET FUNNELED ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA WHILE NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOW PRESENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY W OF 100W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 13 FT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND/SET OF NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO UP TO 17 FT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. MEANWHILE SW SWELL WILL MOVE N OF THE EQUATOR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS MIXING WITH NW SWELL...MAINLY S OF 08N. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED WHICH WILL FUNNEL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN 18 HOURS THEN WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS ONCE THEY BEGIN AROUND 18 UTC WED. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN IN 42 HOURS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AS THEY GET CHANNELED THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AL/LEWITSKY