000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE FEB 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 3N88W 6N108W 2N130W 1N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-87W AND BETWEEN 111W-123W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHEARED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SW TO 30N118W TO SW OF THE AREA AT 21N140W. A VERY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 17N140W...AND EXTENDS NE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N111W AND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH CORE JET SPEEDS OF 70-110 KT. IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING A RATHER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE JET ALSO CONTINUES TO SERVE AS A PIPELINE FOR ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NE TO E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHEARING OUT AS IS MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N131W WITH A RIDGE ESE TO NEAR 21N106W. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN AREA OF NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 6N TO 20N W OF 113W AS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 23/0612 UTC. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD...THE AREA OF TRADES SOUTH OF THE HIGH ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS MOTION WILL ALSO EXPAND AN AREA OF WINDS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST THAT HAVE INCREASED TO NW AT 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS THE SE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. ALSO...THE EASTWARD MOTION OF THE HIGH WILL INDUCE STRONGER NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REACHING UP TO 30 KT BEGINNING IN ABOUT 06 HRS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRESSURE GRADIENT CAREFULLY THERE AS ONLY A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ELSEWHERE A NEARLY STATIONARY ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED ALONG 7N E OF 122W WITH THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CENTER OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ASSOCIATED BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM AND E OF 125W. ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 82W AND 122W REMAINS PRONOUNCED AND QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA MAINLY W OF 100W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS MAXING OUT AT 13 FT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION LATE TUE AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD POSSIBLY REACH AS HIGH AS 17 FT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. GAP WINDS... LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS...SO WILL INTRODUCE GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF BEGINNING IN 36 HRS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN