000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON FEB 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 2N95W 2N104W 5N112W 4N123W 3N131W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-90W...AND 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-104W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-123W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHEARED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES SW 30N126W TO SW OF THE AREA AT 21N140W. A VERY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 16N140W...AND EXTENDING NE TO 20N130W TO 23N120W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH CORE JET SPEEDS OF 60-130 KT. IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THIS JET ALSO CONTINUES TO SERVE AS PIPELINE FOR ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NE TO E ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IS MOVES EWD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N129W WITH A RIDGE ESE TO NEAR 19N110W. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 6N TO 18N W OF 113W. EXPECT THE TRADES TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. DUE TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE HIGH DURING THE PAST 24 HRS...WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST HAVE INCREASED TO NW 20 KT FROM 15N TO 20N. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND N TO 23N E OF 110W IN ABOUT 48 HRS WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. ALSO...WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION OF THE HIGH EXPECT NW TO N WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG AND ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REACHING UP TO 30 KT BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HRS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRES GRADIENT CAREFULLY THERE AS ONLY A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ELSEWHERE A NEARLY STATIONARY ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED ALONG 7N E OF 121W WITH THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CENTER OVER COLOMBIA. ASSOCIATED BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM AND E OF 128W. A DAMPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 85W AND 103W REMAINS VERY PRONOUNCED AND QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXTENSIVE AND NECESSARY VENTILATION ALOFT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA MAINLY W OF 110W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS MAXING OUT AT 13 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELLS IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION ON TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 17 FT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER BY TUE NIGHT. GAP WINDS... LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS...SO WILL INTRODUCE GALE WARNING IN THE 2230 UTC ISSUANCE OF THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE