000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 03N97W TO 06N113W TO 
02N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 83W AND WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 110W AND WITHIN 210 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF U.S. 
CALIFORNIA TO 32N125W TO 27N126W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF 
THIS RIDGE FROM 32N132W TO 18N140W. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF THESE TWO 
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WHICH EXTENDS 
FROM 14N140W TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE JET CORE SPEEDS OF 125 
TO 150 KT. IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW 
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS JET ALSO 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NE TO E ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE ALOFT...A NEARLY STATIONARY ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 09N99W. ASSOCIATED BROAD MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED JET STREAM AND W OF 99W. A FLATTENING MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF 
HONDURAS INTO THE E PAC NEAR 10N93W. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE EPAC BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO 
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 85W-102W. 

AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N129W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO THE E TO SE NEAR 13N109W. THE 
HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THERE IS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
IN PLACE S OF 18N DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND 
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT NE TO E TRADES 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL EXIST MAINLY S OF 20N AND W OF 110W DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ALSO GETTING FUNNELED UP AGAINST 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO 
FROM 16N TO 21N WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE E COAST OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER NW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
AND AS A RESULT NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BECOME 
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO A TIGHT 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE W OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE BEYOND 48 HOURS IF THE 
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 
13 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL 
ARRIVE IN THE FAR NW PORTION ON TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 17 FT BY TUE NIGHT.  

GAP WINDS...
NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH IN 6 HOURS. 

BEYOND 48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING 
A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE 
WED THROUGH THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY