000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 4N90W 4N100W 5N110W 4N122W 4N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W- 106W AND 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-90W AND 111W-115W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHEARED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN U.S. SW TO 26N130W TO W OF THE AREA AT 22N140W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND CONTINUES EWD ALONG 25N TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH CORE JET SPEEDS OF 125-150 KT. IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THIS JET ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NE TO E ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IS MOVES EWD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N133W WITH A RIDGE ESE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 8N TO 18N W OF 120W. WITH THE HIGH CENTER FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...EXPECT THE TRADES TO EXPAND SOME EASTWARD TO NEAR 112W IN 48 HOURS. ALSO...WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION OF THE HIGH EXPECT NW TO N WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG AND ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 16N TO 22N IN 12 HRS...INCREASING FROM 17N TO 25N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MEXICAN IN 48 HRS WHERE NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE A NEARLY STATIONARY ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED ALONG 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 127W WITH THE ACTUAL CENTER NEAR 102W. ASSOCIATED BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM AND W OF ABOUT 94W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SW TO ACROSS HONDURAS...AND TO NEAR 9N94W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 111W-115W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 12 HRS. LOOKING AHEAD...NWP MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT TO BEGIN BY LATE WED WITH WINDS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE