000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN FEB 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 03N78W TO 06N93W TO 06N109W TO 03N117W TO 04N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE AXIS AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 390 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SERIES OF DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHS ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE U.S. W COAST. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO IS RACING EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO N CENTRAL MEXICO. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WITH ANOTHER TROUGH W OF THERE REACHING FROM NEAR 32N123W TO 28N122W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE N WATERS W OF THE FRONT AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FT. A 0046 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS DID NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AHEAD OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE NW SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TO 10 TO 12 FT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NW PART OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N135W TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A COLD FRONT NEAR 30N140W IS BECOMING STATIONARY S OF 30N AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH PRES TO THE SE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD N OF 30N TOWARD U.S. CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE FROM 25N TO 29N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TROUGHS. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W STRETCHING E TO NE TO 22N126W AND ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN 70 AND 120 KT. IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE AREA THIS JET ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NE TO E ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS NOTED NEAR 08N115W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THERE TO 18N116W. BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTHWARD FROM THE ABOVE JET STREAM SOUTHWARD AND W OF 100W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR GUATEMALA TO NEAR 08N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION FOR NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA SW TO NEAR 03N81W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE E NEAR 24N122W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF NE 20 TO 25 KT TRADES FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 122W. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TO SE TO NEAR 26N132W IN 24 HRS. AS A RESULT THE AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 110W IN 48 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 06N109W MOVING W AROUND 7 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING S NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION INDICATED BY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 06N112W IN 24 HOURS THEN WILL BE DISSIPATING NEAR 06N114W IN 48 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 08N134W TO 00N136W AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 04N TO 08N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS WHEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. GAP WINDS... A 2258 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AS N TO NE TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA HAVE WEAKENED. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE PAST 6 HOURS HOWEVER A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN 'DFCX2' LOCATED AT 15N95.5W REPORTED NW WINDS AT 3 KT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA LANDMASS PEAKS. 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