000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT FEB 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W TO 5N90W 5N100W 6N110W TO 04N121W 3N132W 3N140W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DESCRIBED BELOW...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES JUST N OF THE AREA NOTED BY RATHER AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER TROUGHS ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE U.S. W COAST. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING ESE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 27N120W. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WITH THE NEXT TROUGH NOW HAVING MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM 30N133W SW CROSSING 140W AT 24N. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N117W TO 25N121W TO 21N130W. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE W TO N W AT 20-25 KT N OF 27N AND W TO 128W. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA W OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN SEAS 10-15 FT N OF 27N...AND SEAS MAXING OUT TO 14 FT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SEAS STATE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALED HIGHEST SEAS TO BE NEAR 30N 127W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE SW AT 20 KT N OF 28N WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT IN A NW SWELL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN IN ABOUT 12-18 HRS WITH NW SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 12 FT N OF 16N AND W OF 114W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 26N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH WINDS OF 60-120 KT ENTERED THE AREA THROUGH 20N140W...AND STRETCHED ENE TO 24N125W TO 24N117W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING PRETTY MUCH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...THIS FEATURE ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC EASTWARD TO ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND TO WELL E OF THE AREA. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS NOTED NEAR 5N115W WITH A RIDGE TO 14N120W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTHWARD FROM THE JET STREAM SOUTHWARD AND W OF 100W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO SW TO NEAR 9N107W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UPPER VENTILATION FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103W-107W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS ACTIVITY...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...CONTINUES TO B ADVECTED NE ACROSS GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA SW TO NEAR 3N82W...AND WAS ENHANCING SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 4N-6N. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N140W WITH A RIDGE E TO 27N130W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS TO EXIST FROM 6N-14N W OF 128W WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE DUE TO A NW SWELL. MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH SHIFTS E TO NEAR 27N133W IN 48 HRS. AS A RESULT...THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR 124W. A 1009 MB LOW WAS OBSERVED TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 7N107W MOVING W 10 KT. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE BEING NEAR IT...CONVECTION REMAINS NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF THEN LOW UNDER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OCCURRING FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 97W-107W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 7N112W IN 24 HRS...THEN WEAKEN IN 48 HRS WITH WINDS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 20 KT. GAP WINDS... A 1200 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 9N-12N E OF 92W TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HRS AS SW CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN. N WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS N TO NE TRADES N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WEAKEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR