000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 01N80W TO 07N97W TO 07N116W TO 
03N130W TO 06N138W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 
94W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE PASSING 
JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA WITH THE FIRST ONE EXTENDING FROM A 
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL APPROACHING THE MONTERREY BAY AREA OF CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 36N125W SW TO 26N128W TO 24N133W. A MODEST MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WITH A RATHER 
PRONOUNCED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CROSSING E OF 150W. A 
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
32N123W TO 20N140W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE 
FRONT N OF 28N TO 132W AS DEPICTED BY AN 1822 UTC ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE 
AREA W OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN SEAS OF 10 TO 18 FT N OF 17N W 
OF AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 29N131W 
REPORTING 18 FT SEAS AT 1800 UTC. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND 
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WITH NW SWELLS SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT N W OF THE LINE FROM 24N112W TO 17N120W TO 
18N125W. 
 
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A 400 NM WIDE AREA 
OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA S OF 27N. A NEARLY 
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 05N123W WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING TO 23N125W. BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 23N W OF 100W. ANOTHER 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW ACROSS MEXICO TO NEAR 10N100W.  UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
90W AND 94W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS 
BEING ADVECTED NE TOWARDS TO SE MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. 

1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 23N123W. A MAINLY 
WEAK PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH 
WITH TRADES MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT JUST N OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W WHERE NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 
KT WERE CAPTURED BY A 1646 UTC ASCAT AND EARLIER WINDSAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
EXTENDING FROM 11N138W TO 04N140W. A 1928 UTC ASCAT PASS ALSO 
CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS 
FEATURE WILL MOVE W OF 140W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 06.5N99W 1009 MB WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 12N97W TO 09N98W TO 03N99W. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
ARE OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W AROUND THESE 
FEATURES WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS. THESE 
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY 
MOVE TO THE W AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
06N107W WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE W AROUND 10 KT.

...GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WEAKENED.

A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH WINDS BEHIND IT BEING FUNNELED THROUGH THE NICARAGUA AND 
COSTA RICA PASSES INTO THE E PAC ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. A 1506 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20 TO 
30 KT NE TO E WINDS IN THAT AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
FINALLY DISSIPATES.

N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PANAMA WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 18 HRS AS THE TRADES 
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY