000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N80W 4N91W 5N100W 6N110W 4N120W 3N129W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W-100W...AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-119W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PASSING JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA WITH THE FIRST ONE EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL APPROACHING SRN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N127W SW TO 26N130W TO 24N132W. A MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WITH A RATHER PRONOUNCED NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH W OF THE AREA APPROACHING 150W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 20N139W. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE TROUGH N OF 28N AS REPORTED BY DRIFTING BUOY 46614 NEAR 29N130W. NW TO N 20 KT WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT FROM 24N TO 28N. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA W OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN SEAS 10-16 FT N OF 28N...AND SEAS TO 14 FT FROM 24N TO 28N. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN IN 48 HRS WITH NW SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 12 FT N W OF THE LINE FROM 24N112W TO 17N120W TO 18N125W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A 500 NM WIDE AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA S OF 28N. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 4N126W WITH A RIDGE TO 20N120W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 100W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS S TO CENTRAL MEXICO...AND SE TO NEAR 6N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 96W-100W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVECTED NE TOWARDS TO SE MEXICO AND INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N127W. A MAINLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH ONLY AN AREA OF NE TRADES OCCURRING FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 118W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE SORN PORTION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 4N106W TO 10N105W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH FROM 7N-11N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HRS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINSH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. ...GAP WINDS... NE TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT IN 24 HRS...AND TO 20 KT IN 48 HRS. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HRS AS CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WEAKEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE